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The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon under Different Local Sea Level Rises

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  • Caporin, Massimiliano
  • Fontini, Fulvio

Abstract

Venice (Italy) is built on several islands inside a lagoon. It undergoes a periodical �ooding phenomenon, called "Acqua Alta" (AA). A system of mobile dams, called Mo.S.E., is currently under construction to protect it. When needed, several fl�oodgates will be lifted to separate the lagoon from the Adriatic sea. AA, whose length and height has been increasing in recent years, is a random phenomenon, correlated with local sea level rise (LSLR). Several possible LSLRs can be assumed as consequences of different global warming scenarios. We investigate here the cost-bene�t of Mo.S.E. under different possible LSLRs. First, we simulate the future patterns of AA for the next 50 years under alternative LSLRs. Then, we calculate the bene�t of Mo.S.E., converting each avoided AA episode into an economic value (avoided cost). We show that the bene�ts are just at the level of the costs, when a low LSLR is assumed and increase with LSLR, provided that it does not reache a catastrophic (yet unpredictable) extreme level.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53779.

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Date of creation: 19 Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53779

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Keywords: Cost-benefit; Acqua Alta; Tide level simulation;

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  1. Caporin, Massimiliano & PreÅ›, Juliusz, 2012. "Modelling and forecasting wind speed intensity for weather risk management," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3459-3476.
  2. Fulvio Fontini & Georg Umgiesser & Lucia Vergano, 2008. "The Role of Ambiguity in the Evaluation of the Net Benefits of the MOSE System in the Venice Lagoon," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0080, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  3. Lucia Vergano & Georg Umgiesser & Paulo A.L.D. Nunes, 2010. "An Economic Assessment of the Impacts of the MOSE Barriers on Venice Port Activities," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2010.17, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Massimiliano Caporin & Juliusz Preś, 2013. "Forecasting Temperature Indices Density with Time‐Varying Long‐Memory Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 339-352, 07.
  5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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