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Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections

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  • Jones, Randall J.
  • Armstrong, J. Scott
  • Cuzan, Alfred G.

Abstract

Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature and on our experiences with the 2004 presidential election and the 2008 campaign so far, we have reason to believe that a simple expert survey (the Nominal Group Technique) is preferable to Delphi. Our survey of experts in American politics was quite accurate in the 2004 election. Following the same procedure, we have assembled a new panel of experts to forecast the 2008 presidential election. Here we report the results of the first survey, and compare our experts’ forecasts with predictions by the Iowa Electronic Market .

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5301.

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Date of creation: 02 Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5301

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Keywords: forecasting; elections; expert surveys; Delphi;

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  1. Raymond Hubbard & JS Armstrong, 2005. "Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing?," General Economics and Teaching, EconWPA 0502038, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.

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