Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Conditional CAPM, Cross-Section Returns and Stochastic Volatility

Contents:

Author Info

  • Fung, Ka Wai Terence
  • Lau, Chi Keung Marco
  • Chan, Kwok Ho

Abstract

Bansal and Yaron (2004) demonstrate, by calibration, that the Consumption-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) can be rescued by assuming that consumption growth rate follows a stochastic volatility model. They show that the conditional equity premium is a linear function of conditional consumption and market return volatilities, which can be estimated handily by various Generalized Autoregressive Conditonal Heterskedasticity (GARCH) and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models.We find that conditional consumption and market volatilities are capable of explaining cross-sectional return differences. The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) volatility can explain up to 55% variation of return and the EGARCH model augmented with (cay) ̂ -a cointegrating factor of consumption, labor income and asset wealth growth- greatly enhance model performance. We proceed to test another hypothesis: if Bansal and Yaron estimator is an unbiased estimator of true conditional equity premium, then the instrumental variables for estimating conditional equity premium should no longer be significant.We demonstrate that once the theoretical conditional risk premium is added to the model, it renders all instrumental variables redundant. Also, the model prediction is consistent with observed declining equity premium.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52469/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52865/
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52469.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52469

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Financial Economics; Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Equity Premium Puzzle; Fama-French Model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Nan Li, 2005. "Consumption Strikes Back?: Measuring Long-Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 11476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  5. John Y. Campbell, 1990. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Owen Lamont, . "Earnings and Expected Returns," CRSP working papers 345, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  7. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  10. PREMINGER, Arie & HAFNER, Christian M., 2006. "Deciding between GARCH and stochastic volatility via strong decision rules," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 2006042, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153 - 181.
  12. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April.
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  14. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2003. "A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(3), pages 365-419.
  15. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
  16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  17. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Demir, Ender & Zhou, Lu, 2014. "Capital Asset Pricing Model and Stochastic Volatility: A Case study of India," MPRA Paper 56180, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.