Sustainability of the Malawian Current Account Deficit: Application of Structural and Solvency Approaches
AbstractThe objective of the paper is to examine the sustainability of the current account in Malawi. The study employs both econometric analyses and solvency approaches to complement each other. Results from both approaches confirm that Malawi’s current account deficits were excessive and unsustainable during the period of 1980 to 2010. Results from the econometric analysis reveal that for Malawi’s current account to move towards a sustainable path, particular attention should be paid to the following factors; external debt, terms of trade, openness, real exchange rate, net foreign assets and growth. Furthermore, the current account deficit was excessively above the norm, deviating by an average of 5.0 percent during the study period. The solvency approach to current account sustainability, further confirms that the country was running an unsustainable current account deficit. Interestingly, even after the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) relief, the current account was still unsustainable. In this regard, policies should ensure that the real exchange rates is not overvalued, growth is enhanced particularly in the export sector and also ensuring that external debt is sustainable will be key to ensuring sustainable current account.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 51919.
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Economics and International Finance August 2013.5(5)(2013): pp. 187-198
Current Account deficit; External Sustainability; Malawi;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-20 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003.
"Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,"
3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Srđan Boljanović, 2012. "A Sustainability Analysis Of Serbia’S Current Account Deficit," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(195), pages 139-172, October -.
- Sophocles Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas Tsaveas & Melina Vasardani, 2012.
"Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change,"
Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer,
Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 71-95, February.
- Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Hondroyiannis, George & Papazoglou, Christos & Tsaveas, Nicholas T. & Vasardani, Melina A., 2010. "Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1243, European Central Bank.
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas T. Tsaveas & Melina A. Vasardani, 2010. "Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change," Working Papers, Bank of Greece 117, Bank of Greece.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.