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Anatomy of international banking crises at the onset of the Great Recession

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  • Stolbov, Mikhail

Abstract

The paper examines a wide range of potential predictors of 25 international banking crises that broke out in 2007–2011 on the basis of cross–sectional logit models and the BCT (binary classification tree) algorithm, a novel technique in assessing the causes of banking crises. The major determinants of the crises arise from excessive credit depth (measured as private credit to GDP ratio) and illiquidity of the banking sector (credits to deposits ratio). The implementation of explicit deposit insurance schemes is also a pro–crisis factor due to the moral hazard effect they tend to cause. On the contrary, higher values of remittance inflows to GDP decrease the susceptibility to banking crises. These findings are robust under both methodologies. Lower bank concentration, bigger values of cost to income ratios as well as a higher level of economic liberalization make countries more vulnerable to banking crises, as derived from the logit analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 51236.

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Date of creation: 26 Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51236

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Keywords: banking crises; Great Recession; logit analysis; binary classification tree;

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  1. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Schepens, Glenn, 2013. "Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 218-244.
  2. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven, 2012. "Credit information sharing and banking crises: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 788-800.
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  8. Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & lana Liadze, 2011. "How Idiosyncratic are Banking Crises in OECD Countries?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages R53-R58, April.
  9. repec:nsr:niesrd:330 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Klomp, Jeroen, 2010. "Causes of banking crises revisited," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 72-87, March.
  11. Caprio, Gerard & D’Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2014. "Macro-financial determinants of the great financial crisis: Implications for financial regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 114-129.
  12. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.
  13. E. Davis & Dilruba Karim & Iana Liadze, 2011. "Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(4), pages 693-716, November.
  14. Apanard P. Angkinand & Wanvimol Sawangngoenyuang & Clas Wihlborg, 2010. "Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis-super-," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 263-292.
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