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A structural investigation of third-currency shocks to bilateral exchange rates

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Melecky, Martin

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Abstract

An exchange rate between two currencies can be materially affected by shocks emerging from a third country. A US demand shock, for example, can affect the exchange rate between the euro and the yen. Since positive US demand shocks have a greater positive impact on Japanese interest rates than on eurozone rates, the yen appreciates against the euro in response. Using quarterly data on the U.S., the euro area and Japan from 1981 to 2006, this paper shows that the third-currency effects are significant even when exchange rates evolve according to uncovered interest parity. This is because interest rates are typically set in response to output and inflation, which are in turn influenced by other exchange rates. More importantly, third-currency effects are also transmitted to the actual exchange rate through the expected future exchange rate which is, in a multi-country setup, influenced by third-countries' fundamentals and shocks. Third-currency effects have a stronger impact on the currency of a relatively more open economy. The analysis implies that small open economies should avoid strict forms of bilateral exchange rate targeting, since higher trade and financial openness work as a force intrinsically amplifying currency fluctuations.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5114.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5114

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Related research
Keywords: bilateral exchange rates third-currency shocks New Keynesian policy model three-country system US dollar euro Japanese yen.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Melecky, Martin & Najdov, Evgenij, 2008. "Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives," MPRA Paper 9786, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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