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Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Their Risks

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  • Reinhart, Carmen

Abstract

This paper highlights the findings of some of the recent research on capital flows, credit booms, and their attendant consequences for asset prices, business cycles, financial crises and the interaction among these. The aim is to condense key results from the relevant literature and promote discussion on how financial and economic developments in China in recent years fit within established patterns detected in the broader cross-country and historical experience encompassing advanced and emerging market economies across most regions. The big question posed is whether taken together these developments describe the antecedents of a banking crisis with its potential severe consequences for economic activity or a milder soft landing scenario.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50981.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50981

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Keywords: China; credit; financial crisis; capital flows;

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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2012. "Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6260, July.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2010. "After the Fall," NBER Working Papers 16334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nicolas E. Magud & Esteban Vesperoni & Carmen Reinhart, 2012. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms," IMF Working Papers 12/41, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, July.
  11. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1998. "“Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal with the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows,”," MPRA Paper 7123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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