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New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries

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  • Khadan, Jeetendra
  • Hosein, Roger

Abstract

The central notion of the natural trading partner hypothesis is that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be welfare enhancing for members if there is a strong level of bilateral trade complementarity among their trade structures. This paper presents an empirical examination of this issue with reference to a small developing trade bloc–the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and its trading partners. The trade intensity index model is used to assess the determinants of intra-CARICOM and extra-CARICOM trade, placing focus on trade complementarity. The results showed that intra-CARICOM trade complementarity is low and concentrated in a few primary industries which can provide a possible explanation for the persistent low levels of intra-CARICOM trade. The findings also indicate that trade complementarity is generally low between CARICOM countries and their proposed FTA partners in the European Union (EU) and North America. The best natural trading partners for CARICOM countries are then identified based on a ranking of countries from 7 regions (CARICOM, the EU, North America, Asia, Central America, Latin America and Africa).

Suggested Citation

  • Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2013. "New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries," MPRA Paper 50493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50493
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. McLean, Sheldon & Khadan, Jeetendra, 2015. "An assessment of the performance of CARICOM extraregional trade agreements: An initial scoping exercise," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for The Caribbean 37612, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Troy Lorde & Antonio Alleyne & Roger Hosein & Mu Yifei, 2020. "Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 136-150, January.
    3. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ayoki, Milton, 2019. "Are the Gulf States poised to become Uganda’s No. 1 trading partners? Emerging trends and imperatives," MPRA Paper 93646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural trading partner hypothesis; trade complementarity; trade intensity index model; CARICOM countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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