A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States
AbstractUsing quarterly data and dealing with the ex post real rates on three month U.S. Treasury bills and 20 year U.S. Treasury bonds, this empirical note has estimated an IS-LM based regression by 2SLS. The results indicate that the budget deficit raises the slope of the yield curve. Furthermore, to the extent that private sector capital formation is sensitive to longer term real interest rates in the United States, federal budget deficits lead to crowding out of private investment and hence to slower economic growth over the longer run.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50238.
Date of creation: 09 May 1990
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Southern Economic Journal 4.57(1991): pp. 1170-1173
budget deficit; term structure of real interest rates; yield curve;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
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