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A Cointegration Approach to Estimate Private Investment Demand Function of Pakistan

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  • Ali, Sharafat

Abstract

The present study estimates the long run private investment function for the period from 1972 to 2011 by using Johansen cointegration approach. The results suggest debt servicing, inflation and private investment to be negatively associated. The study concludes positive impact of GDP growth rate, foreign direct investment, and exchange rate on private investment in Pakistan. The Wald (χ2) Statistics show that GDP, FDI and exchange rate Granger cause private investment. The significance of coefficient of the error correction term confirms the long run causality between explanatory variables and private investment. The pair-wise Granger causality concludes unidirectional causality from private investment to GDP growth, from private investment to foreign direct investment, inflation rate to private investment and from private investment to exchange rate but causality test confirms bidirectional causality between debt servicing and private investment. The paper also suggests policy recommendations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49595.

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Date of creation: 02 Sep 2013
Date of revision: 02 Sep 2113
Publication status: Published in Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management 3.9(2013): pp. 1-13
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49595

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Related research

Keywords: Asia; Pakistan; Investment; Debt Servicing; Exchange Rate; Foreign Direct Investment; Inflation; Stationarity; Cointegration; Causality.;

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References

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando, 1999. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 315-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John J. Heim, 2008. "The Investment Function: Determinants Of Demand For Investment Goods," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0806, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  4. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "What Determines Private Investment? The Case of Pakistan," Finance Working Papers 22202, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Sharafat, Ali & Hamid, Waqas & Muhammad, Asghar & Raheel Abbas, Kalroo & Muhammad, Ayaz & Mukhtyar, Khan, 2013. "Foreign Capital and Investment in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 55640, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2013.
  2. Ali, Sharafat, 2014. "Inflation, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 53706, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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