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Cointegration Analysis of Exports and Imports: The Case of Pakistan Economy

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  • Ali, Sharafat

Abstract

This paper analyzes the long run association between Pakistan’s exports and imports from 1972 to 2012. The results of both the Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1991, 1995) cointegration reveal a long run relationship between the two variables. The error correction model results demonstrate that both of the variables converge towards long run equilibrium. This specifies the effectiveness of macrocosmic policies in stabilizing the international trade balance.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49295.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49295

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Keywords: Exports; Imports; Cointegration; Budget Constraint;

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Mohammad Afzal, 2008. "Long-Run Relationship Between Imports And Exports: Evidence From Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(02), pages 261-278.
  3. Manuchehr Irandoust & Johan Ericsson, 2004. "Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 49-64, 02.
  4. M. Ali Kemal & Usman Qadir, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate, Exports, and Imports Movements: A Trivariate Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 177-195.
  5. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February.
  6. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  8. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2011. "Are exports and imports cointegrated in India and China? An empirical analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 860-873.
  9. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581.
  10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, September.
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