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Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP

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  • Arby, Muhammad Farooq

Abstract

Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.

Suggested Citation

  • Arby, Muhammad Farooq, 2001. "Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP," MPRA Paper 4929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4929
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4929/1/MPRA_paper_4929.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Torben Mark Pedersen, 1998. "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the Slutzky Effect, and the Distortionary Effect of Filters," Discussion Papers 98-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Reeves Jonathan J. & Blyth Conrad A. & Triggs Christopher M. & Small John P., 2000. "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, a Generalization, and a New Procedure for Extracting an Empirical Cycle from a Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdullah Muhammad Iqbal & Iram Khan & Zeeshan Ahmed, 2015. "Earnings Management and Privatisations: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 79-96.
    2. Muhammad Umar Draz Author_Email: umardraz2626@yahoo.com, 2011. "Impact Of Financial Crises On Pakistan And China: A Comparative Study Of Six Decades," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-529, Conference Master Resources.
    3. Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Munawar Hussain & Raja Muhammad Ahsan Ilyas & Muhammad Asif Khan, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis for the determinants of investment appraisal," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 15(148), pages 686-686.
    4. Lawrence Ogbeifun & Olatunji Shobande, 2020. "Debt sustainability and the fiscal reaction function: evidence from MIST countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; growth; pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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