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Co-Integration Between Fertility and Human Development Indicators: Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Abdullah, Muhammad
  • Chani, Muhammad Irfan
  • Ali, Amjad
  • Shoukat, Ayza

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is to investigate the long run co-integration and short run dynamics between fertility decline and development indicators in Pakistan. Bound Testing approach (ARDL) and VECM are applied on annual time series data from 1971-2010 after finding mixed order of integration of the series through Ng -Perron unit root test. The results show that long run co-integration and short run dynamics exist between total fertility rate and Human Development Indicators (secondary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita). Secondary school enrollment and life expectancy at birth prove the negative and significant impact on fertility, while GDP per capita indicated the positive but insignificant impact on fertility. The findings of study suggest that more resources should be invested in human capital formation through the provision of better education and health facilities to keep the fertility on declining.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49134.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Publication status: Published in Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 4.15(2013): pp. 586-591
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49134

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Keywords: Fertility; School Enrollment; Life Expectancy; GDP per Capita; Pakistan;

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  1. Joseph Potter & Carl Schmertmann & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2002. "Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil," Demography, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 739-761, November.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Paul Gertler & John Molyneaux, 1994. "How economic development and family planning programs combined to reduce indonesian fertility," Demography, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-63, February.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Pritchett, Lant H. & DEC, 1994. "Desired fertility and the impact of population policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank.
  6. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  7. Schultz, T Paul, 1994. "Human Capital, Family Planning, and Their Effects on Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 255-60, May.
  8. Karen Mason, 1997. "Explaining fertility transitions," Demography, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 443-454, November.
  9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
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