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A Tale of Two Eurozones: Banks’s Funding, Sovereign Risk & Unconventional Monetary Policies

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  • Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas

Abstract

The admission by the Greek government on October 18, 2009, of large-scale accounting fraud in its national accounts sparked an unprecedented sovereign debt crisis that rapidly spread to the Eurozone’s weakest member states. As the crisis increasingly drove a wedge between a seemingly resilient Eurozone core and its faltering periphery, its first collateral victims were the private banks of the hardest-hit sovereigns. They were rapidly followed by the rest of the Eurozone’s banks as a result of their large exposure to not only their home country’s sovereign debt, but also to the debt securities of other member states. Measuring each bank’s precise exposure to every sovereign issuer became a key issue for credit analysis in the attempt to assess the potential impact of a selective sovereign default if worse came to worst. Yet finding that information in a timely manner is hardly an easy task, as banks are not required to disclose it. Building on the efficient market hypothesis in the presence of informed traders, we tested the sensitivity of each of the largest Eurozone private banks’ CDSs to sovereign CDSs using a simple autoregressive model estimated by time-series regressions and panel regressions, comparing the results to news releases to assess its reliability. Eventually, we used the Oaxaca Blinder decomposition to measure whether the unconventional monetary policies, namely the LTRO and the OMT, that the ECB has implemented to stem the crisis have helped banks directly or whether banks were actually helped by the reduction in sovereign CDS spreads.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49072.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49072

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Keywords: Private Banks; Central Banks; Sovereign Debt Risk; OMT; LTRO; Non-Conventional Monetary Policies; Eurozone’s Sovereign Debt Crisis; Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition.;

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  1. Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, 06.
  2. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government Bond Risk Premiums in the EU revisited: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Panetta, Fabio & Correa, Ricardo & Davies, Michael & Di Cesare, Antonio & Marques, José-Manuel & Nadal de Simone, Francisco & Signoretti, Federico & Vespro, Cristina & Vildo, Siret & Wieland, Martin , 2011. "The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions," MPRA Paper 32581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Óscar Arce & Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2012. "Credit-Risk Valuation in the Sovereign CDS and Bonds Markets: Evidence from the Euro Area Crisis," Faculty Working Papers, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra 22/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  5. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Marcello Bofondi & Luisa Carpinelli & Enrico Sette, 2013. "Credit supply during a sovereign debt crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 909, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Acharya, Viral V & Drechsler, Itamar & Schnabl, Philipp, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 8679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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