Did Greenspan Open Pandora's Box? Testing the Taylor Hypothesis and Beyond
AbstractThe Taylor hypothesis is the conjecture that the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the 2008-present downturn have been caused by loose monetary policy during 2002-2006. According to the Taylor hypothesis the Fed deviated from well-know rules of monetary policy-making over this period, and this deviation caused an inefficient boom and subsequent bust. I use a well know economic model of the US aggregate economy (Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans 2005) to test this hypothesis. I interpret shocks as deviations from Taylor-type rules. I conclude that the Taylor hypothesis for the Taylor rule fails to reproduce observed fluctuations in the data. Output increases only 0.3% at maximum which occurs at 2004:Q2. In the data, the output gap was at it's maximum in 2006:Q3. However, the Taylor hypothesis modified to incorporate persistence in the policy rule can partly explain the boom of the economy after 2001.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48197.
Date of creation: 21 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Business Cycle; Financial Crisis; Great Moderation; Monetary Shocks; Persistence;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2013-07-15 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-07-15 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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