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Time-varying global and local sources of risk in Russian stock market

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Author Info
Saleem, Kashif
Vaihekoski, Mika

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Abstract

In this paper we study international asset pricing models and pricing of global and local sources of risk in the Russian stock market using weekly data from 1999 to 2006. In our empirical specification, we utilize and extend the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998), by allowing conditional local influence as well. Similar to them we find global risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency risk components.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4795.

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Date of creation: 10 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4795

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Related research
Keywords: international asset pricing models; segmentation; currency risk; multivariate GARCH-M; Russia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kim Nummelin & Mika Vaihekoski, 2002. "World capital markets and Finnish stock returns," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 322-343, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mika Vaihekoski, 2007. "Global Market and Currency Risk in Finnish Stock Market," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 72-88, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jorion, Philippe & Giovannini, Alberto, 1993. "Time-series tests of a non-expected-utility model of asset pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1083-1100, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Hentschel, Ludger, 1995. "All in the family Nesting symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-104, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gerard, Bruno & Thanyalakpark, Kessara & Batten, Jonathan A., 2003. "Are the East Asian markets integrated? Evidence from the ICAPM," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 585-607. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Saleem, Kashif & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2008. "Pricing of global and local sources of risk in Russian stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 40-56, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February. [Downloadable!]
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  11. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992. "Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity," NBER Working Papers 4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Alexei Goriaev & Alexei Zabotkin, 2006. "Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade," Working Papers w0077, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Harvey, Campbell R. & Zhou, Guofu, 1993. "International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 107-131, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 363-376, September. [Downloadable!]
  19. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Roll, Richard, 1992. " Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Local risk factors in emerging markets: Are they separately priced?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 444-461, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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