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From Kondratieff to Chaos: Some Perspectives on Long-Term and Short-Term Business Cycles

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  • Dale, Charles

Abstract

The nature of short- and long-term business cycles is a topic of considerable interest to futurists, since the state of the economy affects the possibilities for dealing with so many other areas of interest, from pollution control to child care. In this article, which is based on a talk that the author gave at the World Future Society’s Sixth General Assembly in July 1989, he discusses the most recent ideas in both long- and short-term business cycle theory, and describes some of their interrelationships. One of the key connections between short- and long-term cycles is through industry, and the paper begins with a discussion of an industrial quality control issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale, Charles, 1990. "From Kondratieff to Chaos: Some Perspectives on Long-Term and Short-Term Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 46229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46229
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sayers, C.L., 1988. "Work Stoppages: Exploring The Nonlinear Dynamics," Papers 27, Houston - Department of Economics.
    2. Ramsey, James B & Sayers, Chera L & Rothman, Philip, 1990. "The Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 991-1020, November.
    3. Brock, William A. & Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Spectral Analysis Cannot Tell A Macro-Econometrician Whether His Time Series Came From A Stochastic Economy Or A Deterministic Economy," SSRI Workshop Series 292596, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute.
    4. Lorenz, Hans-Walter, 1987. "Strange attractors in a multisector business cycle model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 397-411, September.
    5. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    6. Dale, Charles, 1984. "A Search for Business Cycles with Spectral Analysis," MPRA Paper 49508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kondratieff; Long waves: Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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