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Left, right, left: income, learning and political dynamics

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  • Morrow, John
  • Carter, Michael

Abstract

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to a broad range of dynamic, non-concave income processes. The model implies support for redistributive policies materializes rapidly if few prospects of upward mobility are present. In contrast, under imperfect information, a slow and polarizing shift toward redistributive preferences occurs. Simulation using fitted income dynamics suggests that imperfect information better accounts for the shift back to the left, and offers additional insights about political dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45020.

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Date of creation: 23 Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45020

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Keywords: income dynamics; redistributive politics; polarization; Bayesian learning; Latin America;

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Cited by:
  1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Food security policy options for China: lessons from other countries," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2014-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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