Left, right, left: income, learning and political dynamics
AbstractThe political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to a broad range of dynamic, non-concave income processes. The model implies support for redistributive policies materializes rapidly if few prospects of upward mobility are present. In contrast, under imperfect information, a slow and polarizing shift toward redistributive preferences occurs. Simulation using fitted income dynamics suggests that imperfect information better accounts for the shift back to the left, and offers additional insights about political dynamics.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45020.
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2013
Date of revision:
income dynamics; redistributive politics; polarization; Bayesian learning; Latin America;
Other versions of this item:
- John Morrow & Michael Carter, 2013. "Left, Right, Left: Income, Learning and Political Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 19498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
- D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- P1 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2013-03-30 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-LAM-2013-03-30 (Central & South America)
- NEP-POL-2013-03-30 (Positive Political Economics)
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