Business cycles and crime. the case of Argentina
AbstractThis study focus on the relationship between crime and business cycle in Argentina, at national and provincial level, using monthly time series for the period 1999-2008. For that end we examine the presence of common factors (interpreted as cyclical components) driving the dynamics of a set of types of crimes and monthly economic activity indicators (EMAE and ISAP). By means of Dynamic Factor Models we identify which type of crime is related to business cycle and if these crimes are leading, lagging or coincident. We find a strong counter-cyclical relationship between total and property crime rates and its typologies and business cycle. Additionally these series are slightly lagged with respect to business cycle. On the other hand, crimes against persons are found to be pro-cyclical and coincident.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44515.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Typologies of Crime; Business Cycles; Dynamic Factors Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
- K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
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