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Business cycles and crime. the case of Argentina

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  • Cerro, Ana Maria
  • Michel Rivero, Andrés

Abstract

This study focus on the relationship between crime and business cycle in Argentina, at national and provincial level, using monthly time series for the period 1999-2008. For that end we examine the presence of common factors (interpreted as cyclical components) driving the dynamics of a set of types of crimes and monthly economic activity indicators (EMAE and ISAP). By means of Dynamic Factor Models we identify which type of crime is related to business cycle and if these crimes are leading, lagging or coincident. We find a strong counter-cyclical relationship between total and property crime rates and its typologies and business cycle. Additionally these series are slightly lagged with respect to business cycle. On the other hand, crimes against persons are found to be pro-cyclical and coincident.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerro, Ana Maria & Michel Rivero, Andrés, 2012. "Business cycles and crime. the case of Argentina," MPRA Paper 44515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44515
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Typologies of Crime; Business Cycles; Dynamic Factors Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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