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Current account sustainability in advanced economies

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  • Lanzafame, Matteo

Abstract

This paper investigates the sustainability of current accounts in advanced economies, using a panel of 27 countries and annual data over the 1980-2008 period. We find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear but stationary current-account trajectories for 14 countries, while the remaining 13 appear to be nonstationary and, thus, unsustainable. Our analysis indicates that careful empirical modeling of current-account dynamics, particularly in relation to cross-section dependence and nonlinear behaviour, is crucial for appropriate economic policymaking.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42384/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42384.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42384

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Keywords: Current account sustainability; panel unit root tests; nonlinearity;

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  1. Mario Cerrato & Christian de Peretti & Rolf Larsson & Nicholas Sarantis, 2011. "A nonlinear panel unit root test under cross section dependence," Working Papers 2011_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February.
  3. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  4. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Working Papers 517, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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  7. Jörg Breitung & Samarjit Das, 2005. "Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 59(4), pages 414-433.
  8. Banerjee, Anindya & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2002. "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 13, Royal Economic Society.
  9. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
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  11. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union," Working Paper Series 05_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  12. Lau, Evan & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Haw, Chan Tze, 2006. "Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 90-107, January.
  13. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 215-222, February.
  14. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  15. Karlsson, Sune & Lothgren, Mickael, 2000. "On the power and interpretation of panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 249-255, March.
  16. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
  17. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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