A nonparametric Bayesian approach for counterfactual prediction with an application to the Japanese private nursing home market
AbstractThis paper proposes a new inferential framework for structural econometric models using a nonparametric Bayesian approach. Although estimation methods based on moment conditions can employ a flexible estimation without distributional assumptions, they have difficulty conducting a prediction analysis. I propose a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for an estimation and prediction analysis. My methodology is applied to an empirical analysis of the Japanese private nursing home market. This market has a sticky economic circumstance, and my prediction simulates an intervention that removes this circumstance. The prediction result implies that the outdated circumstance in this market is harmful for consumers today.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42154.
Date of creation: 23 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Nonparametric Bayes; Nonlinear simultaneous equation model; Prediction; Industrial organization; Nursing home; Long-term care in Japan;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
- L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-11-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-11-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-HEA-2012-11-03 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Byrne & Michelle S. Goeree & Bridget Hiedemann & Steven Stern, 2009. "Formal Home Health Care, Informal Care, And Family Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1205-1242, November.
- Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
- Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2004. "Aged-Care Support in Japan: Perspectives and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 10882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amil Petrin, 2002. "Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 705-729, August.
- Peter Davis, 2006. "Spatial competition in retail markets: movie theaters," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 964-982, December.
- Pradeep Chintagunta & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Khim Yong Goh, 2005. "Beyond the Endogeneity Bias: The Effect of Unmeasured Brand Characteristics on Household-Level Brand Choice Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 832-849, May.
- Hanson, Timothy E., 2006. "Inference for Mixtures of Finite Polya Tree Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1548-1565, December.
- Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
- Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
- Jiang, Renna & Manchanda, Puneet & Rossi, Peter E., 2009. "Bayesian analysis of random coefficient logit models using aggregate data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 136-148, April.
- Steven Berry & Ariel Pakes, 2007. "The Pure Characteristics Demand Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1193-1225, November.
- Kottas A. & Gelfand A.E., 2001. "Bayesian Semiparametric Median Regression Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1458-1468, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.