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Failure to Launch in Two-Sided Markets: A Study of the U.S. Video Game Market

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  • Zhou, Yiyi

Abstract

In the dynamic two-sided market environment, overpricing one side of the market not only discourages demand on that side but also discourages participation on the other side. Over time, this process can lead to a death spiral. This paper develops a dynamic structural model of the video game market to study launch failures in two-sided markets. The paper models consumers’ purchase decisions for hardware platforms and affiliated software products and software firms’ entry and pricing decisions. This paper also develops a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate dynamic structural models. The results of the counterfactual simulations show that a failed platform could have survived if it had lowered its hardware prices and that it could not have walked out of the death spiral if it had subsidized software entry.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42002.

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Date of creation: 16 Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42002

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Keywords: Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Estimation; Failure to Launch; Two-Sided Market; Indirect Network Effect; Forward-Looking Consumer; Video Game Market;

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  1. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, 09.
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  7. Evans David S. & Schmalensee Richard, 2010. "Failure to Launch: Critical Mass in Platform Businesses," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-28, December.
  8. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1994. "The solution and estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models by simulation and interpolation: Monte Carlo evidence," Staff Report 181, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. E. Glen Weyl, 2010. "A Price Theory of Multi-sided Platforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1642-72, September.
  10. Caillaud, Bernard & Jullien, Bruno, 2003. " Chicken & Egg: Competition among Intermediation Service Providers," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(2), pages 309-28, Summer.
  11. Marc Rysman, 2009. "The Economics of Two-Sided Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 125-43, Summer.
  12. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1994. "An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 207-240.
  13. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Computable Markov-perfect industry dynamics," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(2), pages 215-243.
  14. Andriy Norets, 2009. "Inference in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Serially orrelated Unobserved State Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1665-1682, 09.
  15. Jiang, Renna & Manchanda, Puneet & Rossi, Peter E., 2009. "Bayesian analysis of random coefficient logit models using aggregate data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 136-148, April.
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