How can we anticipate crises?
AbstractEvery crisis should teach us a valuable lesson. However, it seems that we learn almost nothing since they still occur from time to time strongly affecting the world economies. The basic question from where we started our research and to which we tried to answer as clearly as possible is the following: How can we anticipate future crises before they begin to make their presence felt on the global economic scene? The answer is both simple and handy, as the most consistent and relevant explanations in this regard come from the Austrian School of economics. We refer, in particular, to the theory of business cycle. Analyzing this problem, we discovered multiple causes, or better said clues that might help us anticipate and recognize the onset time of economic recessions. We will focus on two of them, considered to be the most important ones. The first clue is closely linked to an expansionary monetary policy that led to a deterioration of credit and to inflation. The second sign that we will be argued in this paper, a sign in close connection with the first clue, is due to the application of protectionist measures or, in other words, the second cause was actually the state’s interventionism.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41440.
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in The Annals of The "Ştefan cel Mare" University of Suceava. Fascicle of The Faculty of Economics and Public Administration 2(14).11(2011): pp. 128-134
Austrian School; business cycle; crisis; expansion; interventionism;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
- B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian
- B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-HPE-2012-09-30 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2012-09-30 (Macroeconomics)
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- Klausinger, Hansjörg, 2003. "The Austrians on Relative Inflation as a Cause of Crisis," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 221-237, June.
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