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Respuesta del retorno accionario a la politica monetaria: Evidencia para el mercado chileno
[Stock return response to monetary policy: Evidence from the Chilean market]

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  • Acuña, Andres A.
  • Pinto, Cristian F.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the response of the stock market returns to monetary policy decisions by the Central Bank of Chile. It adopts the event-study methodology in order to gauge the influence of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the Chilean monetary policy interest rate (TPM), decided in every meeting of Monetary Policy Comitee, on the return of stocks traded at Santiago Stock Exchange in the monthly period 2001-2012. Unlike most the literature on this subject, mainly associated with US Federal Reserve monetary policy, no evidence is found on the impact of monetary surprises on stock returns, when surprise is measured using the Economic Expectations Survey.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41091.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41091

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Keywords: event study; inflation targeting; monetary policy; stock returns;

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  1. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, octubre-d.
  2. Guo, Hui, 2004. "Stock prices, firm size, and changes in the federal funds rate target," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 487-507, September.
  3. Willem Thorbecke, 1998. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 9812009, EconWPA.
  4. Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 323, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  6. Boschen, John F & Mills, Leonard O, 1995. "The Relation between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 24-44, January.
  7. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rozeff, Michael S., 1974. "Money and stock prices : Market efficiency and the lag in effect of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 245-302, September.
  9. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
  10. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 0354, European Central Bank.
  11. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
  12. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
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