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Asian Financial Integration during the Pre- and Post-crisis Periods

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  • M., Azali
  • Lee, Chin

Abstract

As the economies of Asian have moved towards closer economic ties and trade integration in recent years, the establishment of regional exchange rate arrangement is becoming an important regional policy concern, particularly in the wake of the Asian currency crisis of 1997. Financial integration in ASEAN+3 is assessed in this paper by examining the time-series stochastic behaviour and cointegration in a set of eight ASEAN+3 currencies in pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods. Significant non-stationarity, and the presence of unit roots were documented for each currency in each sample period. The results of cointegration analysis showed that the currencies are not cointegrated during the pre-crisis period. Evidence of cointegration was found among a few Asian currencies in the crisis and post-crisis periods. These findings have important implications for understanding the potential of developing a common currency area.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 40656.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision: 2009
Publication status: Published in Journal of International of Economic Review 1-2.2(2009): pp. 103-112
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40656

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Keywords: Exchange Rate; Cointegration; Granger-causality; Asian;

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  1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  5. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  8. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1993. "Cointegration among Southeast Asian and Japanese currencies: Preliminary evidence of a Yen bloc?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 161-166.
  9. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.

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