Nominal GDP targeting for a speedier economic recovery
AbstractFor U.S. recessions since 1948, we study paneled time series of (i) ExUR, the excess of the unemployment rate over the prerecession rate, and (ii) NGAP, the percent deviation of nominal GDP from its prerecession trend. Excluding the 1969-70 and 1973-75 recessions, a regression of ExUR on current and past values of NGAP has an R2 of 75%. Simulations indicate that NGDP targeting could have eliminated 84% of the average ExUR during the period from 1.5 years and 4 years after the recessions began. The maximum effect of NGAP on unemployment occurs with a lag of 2 to 3 quarters.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39821.
Date of creation: 08 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
nominal GDP targeting; unemployment; recessions; business cycle;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
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