IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/39821.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nominal GDP targeting for a speedier economic recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Eagle, David M.

Abstract

For U.S. recessions since 1948, we study paneled time series of (i) ExUR, the excess of the unemployment rate over the prerecession rate, and (ii) NGAP, the percent deviation of nominal GDP from its prerecession trend. Excluding the 1969-70 and 1973-75 recessions, a regression of ExUR on current and past values of NGAP has an R2 of 75%. Simulations indicate that NGDP targeting could have eliminated 84% of the average ExUR during the period from 1.5 years and 4 years after the recessions began. The maximum effect of NGAP on unemployment occurs with a lag of 2 to 3 quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Eagle, David M., 2012. "Nominal GDP targeting for a speedier economic recovery," MPRA Paper 39821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39821/1/MPRA_paper_39821.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Price Level Targeting vs Inflation Targeting : A free Lunch?," Papers 614, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, "undated". "The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting," GSIA Working Papers 1998-20, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    5. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty: evidence from the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1089, European Central Bank.
    6. Richard Reichel, 2004. "On the Death of the Phillips Curve: Further Evidence," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 341-348, Fall.
    7. Sylvia Staudinger, 2000. "Inflation Targeting versus Nominal Income Targeting," CESifo Working Paper Series 301, CESifo.
    8. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 19-90.
    9. Donald Coletti & René Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Price-Level-Path Targeting in the GEM: Some Open Economy Considerations," Staff Working Papers 08-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. Meade, James E, 1993. "The Meaning of "Internal Balance."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(6), pages 3-9, December.
    11. George A. Kahn, 2009. "Beyond inflation targeting: should central banks target the price level?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 35-64.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1265-1300, October.
    13. Meh, Césaire A. & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Terajima, Yaz, 2010. "Aggregate and welfare effects of redistribution of wealth under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 637-652, September.
    14. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-819, December.
    15. Malik, Hamza, 2005. "Price Level vs. Nominal Income Targeting: Aggregate Demand Shocks and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 456, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006.
    16. Donald Coletti & René Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Price-Level-Path Targeting in the Global Economy Model: Some Open Economy Considerations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 326-338, June.
    17. Steve Ambler, 2009. "Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2009(Spring), pages 21-31.
    18. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-295, August.
    19. Ilker Domac & Magda Kandil, 2002. "On the performance and practicality of nominal GDP targeting in Germany," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 179-204, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eagle, David M, 2012. "Liquidity Traps and the Price (In)Determinacy of Monetary Rules," MPRA Paper 42416, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    2. Guender, Alfred V. & Tam, Julie, 2004. "On the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 143-163, March.
    3. Froyen, Richard & Guender, Alfred, 2000. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for Small Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 721-740, November.
    4. Sylvia Staudinger, 2000. "Inflation Targeting versus Nominal Income Targeting," CESifo Working Paper Series 301, CESifo.
    5. Billi, Roberto M., 2018. "Price level targeting and risk management," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 163-173.
    6. Boris Cournède & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Is there a Case for Price-level Targeting?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 721, OECD Publishing.
    7. Fang, Chung-rou & Lai, Ching-chong, 2002. "Targeting nominal income versus targeting price level: A target zone perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249.
    8. Helmut Frisch & Sylvia Staudinger, 2002. "Comparing Different Central Bank Targets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 11-30, March.
    9. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    10. Lai, Ching-chong & Chen, Shu-hua & Shaw, Ming-fu, 2005. "Nominal income targeting versus money growth targeting in an endogenously growing economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 359-366, March.
    11. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting – A Viable Alternative To Inflation Targeting?," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 809-823, December.
    12. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    14. Michael Hatcher & Patrick Minford, 2016. "Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 327-355, April.
    15. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:809-823 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fackler, James S. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 2020. "Nominal GDP versus price level targeting: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Haider Ali & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2014. "Choice of Monetary Policy Instrument under Targeting Regimes in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:102, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    18. Jean Boivin, 2009. "Getting it Right When You Might Be Wrong: The Choice Between Price-Level and Inflation Targeting," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 297, September.
    19. Julian A. Parra-Polania & Luisa F. Acuña-Roa, 2013. "Price-Level Targeting: an omelette that requires breaking some Inflation-Targeting eggs?," Borradores de Economia 10984, Banco de la Republica.
    20. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    21. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2016. "Nominal income versus Taylor-type rules in practice," Working Papers hal-01357870, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal GDP targeting; unemployment; recessions; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.