IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/39808.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interação entre o mercado acionista e o crescimento económico: Uma apreciação do caso português (1993-2010)
[Interaction between the stock market and economic growth: An assessment of the Portuguese case (1993-2010)]

Author

Listed:
  • Marques, Luís Miguel
  • Fuinhas, José Alberto
  • Marques, António Cardoso

Abstract

The relationship between stock market development and domestic product are tested for Portugal in a fast economic transformation period (1993-2010). Dynamics are analyzed using a VAR model through Granger causality tests, variance decomposition and impulse-response function. Results show that stock market contributes positively to economic growth. They also conclude that banking system is not a determinant factor in economic growth. There was no causality from economic growth to the development of stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Interação entre o mercado acionista e o crescimento económico: Uma apreciação do caso português (1993-2010) [Interaction between the stock market and economic growth: An assessment of the Portugues," MPRA Paper 39808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39808/1/MPRA_paper_39808.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohamed Trabelsi, 2002. "Finance and Growth: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries 1960-1990," Working Papers 0228, Economic Research Forum, revised 26 Sep 2002.
    2. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    3. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Dynamic Stock Market Integration Driven by the European Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 10, pages 305-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    5. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    6. Castaneda, Gonzalo, 2006. "Economic growth and concentrated ownership in stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-286, February.
    7. Felix Rioja & Neven Valev, 2004. "Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 127-140, January.
    8. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    9. José Alberto Fuinhas, 2003. "O canal do crédito, o sobreendividamento e as crises económicas," Working Papers de Gestão, Economia e Marketing (Management, Economics and Marketing Working Papers) 03/2003, Universidade da Beira Interior, Departamento de Gestão e Economia (Portugal).
    10. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediaries: Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 291-321, May.
    11. Lee, Bong-Soo, 2012. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems: Time-series evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 173-197.
    12. Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van & Buelens, Frans & Cuyvers, Ludo, 2006. "Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 13-38, January.
    13. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    14. Umar Bida Ndako, 2010. "Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from South Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 72-92.
    15. Rousseau, P. L. & Wachtel, P., 2000. "Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980-1995," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1933-1957, December.
    16. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    18. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    19. Salvatore Capasso, 2008. "Endogenous Information Frictions, Stock Market Development And Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(2), pages 204-222, March.
    20. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    21. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek & Nauro F. Campos, 1999. "Do Stock Markets Promote Economic Growth," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 267, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    22. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    23. Jagdish Handa & Shubha Rahman Khan, 2008. "Financial development and economic growth: a symbiotic relationship," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1033-1049.
    24. Hyoungsoo Zang & Young Chul Kim, 2007. "Does financial development precede growth? Robinson and Lucas might be right," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 15-19.
    25. Nielsson, Ulf, 2009. "Stock exchange merger and liquidity: The case of Euronext," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 229-267, May.
    26. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hou, Han & Cheng, Su-Yin, 2010. "The dynamic impacts of financial institutions on economic growth: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 879-891, September.
    27. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Peter G. A Howells & Alaa M. Soliman, 2004. "Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Causal Linkage," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50, June.
    28. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    29. Michael Leahy & Sebastian Schich & Gert Wehinger & Florian Pelgrin & Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, 2001. "Contributions of Financial Systems to Growth in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 280, OECD Publishing.
    30. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
    31. Atje, Raymond & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1993. "Stock markets and development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 632-640, April.
    32. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    33. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    34. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    35. Salvatore Capasso, 2006. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-102, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    36. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2009. "Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1140-1146, November.
    37. Bose, Niloy & Cothren, Richard, 1997. "Asymmetric Information and Loan Contracts in a Neoclassical Growth Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 423-439, November.
    38. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2003. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 142-163.
    39. Benson Durham, J., 2002. "The effects of stock market development on growth and private investment in lower-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-232, September.
    40. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    41. António Afonso & Raquel Ferreira & Edmund Freitas & Celso Nóbrega & José Pinheiro, 2003. "Intermediaries, Financial Markets and Growth: Some more International Evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2003/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    42. Mansur Masih & Ali Al-Elg & Haider Madani, 2009. "Causality between financial development and economic growth: an application of vector error correction and variance decomposition methods to Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1691-1699.
    43. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
    44. Ake Boubakari & Dehuan Jin, 2010. "The Role of Stock Market Development in Economic Growth: Evidence from Some Euronext Countries," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(1), pages 14-20, December.
    45. Levine, Ross, 1991. "Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-1465, September.
    46. Alexandr Akimov & Albert Wijeweera & Brian Dollery, 2009. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from transition economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(12), pages 999-1008.
    47. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1993. "Market Liquidity and Performance Monitoring," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 678-709, August.
    48. TRABELSI, Mohammed, 2002. "Finance and Growth : Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries, 1960-1990," Cahiers de recherche 2002-13, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    49. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 783-799, November.
    50. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    51. Omran Mohammed & Bolbol Ali, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development, and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Arab Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 37-55, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2013. "Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 316-324.
    2. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    3. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Neville R. Norman & John H. Hall, 2014. "The dynamics of banking sector and stock market maturity and the performance of Asian economies," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 16-44, May.
    5. Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
    6. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    7. Cheng, Su-Yin, 2012. "Substitution or complementary effects between banking and stock markets: Evidence from financial openness in Taiwan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 508-520.
    8. Laurent Cavenaile & Christian Gengenbach & Franz Palm, 2014. "Stock Markets, Banks and Long Run Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 19-40, March.
    9. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    10. Polat, Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Satti, Saqlain Latif, 2013. "Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 51724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2013.
    11. Guangdong Xu, 2022. "From financial structure to economic growth: Theory, evidence and challenges," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(1), February.
    12. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hou, Han & Cheng, Su-Yin, 2010. "The dynamic impacts of financial institutions on economic growth: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 879-891, September.
    13. Su-Yin Cheng & Han Hou, 2022. "Innovation, financial development, and growth: evidences from industrial and emerging countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1629-1653, August.
    14. Christie Dike, 2016. "Stock Market Efficiency Promotes Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1287-1298.
    15. Seven, Unal & Coskun, Yener, 2016. "Does financial development reduce income inequality and poverty? Evidence from emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 34-63.
    16. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    17. Abu Nurudeen, 2009. "Does Stock Market Development Raise Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 015-026, December.
    18. Seven, Ünal & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "Financial intermediation and economic growth: Does income matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 39-58.
    19. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall, 2019. "The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Stock Market Depth, Trade Openness, And Foreign Direct Investment: The Case Of Asean Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 461-493, June.
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Economic Growth; Causality; and VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.