Global imbalances, under-consumption and overborrowing: the state of the world economy & future policies
AbstractThis paper addresses the question of whether growth convergence can be sustained in the global economy without compromising welfare and without causing major crises. It employs a simplified stock-flow analytical framework to examine the proposition that the pace and pattern of global growth is conditioned by ‘under-consumption’ in some regions of the world and ‘overborrowing’ in other regions. A baseline projection using the Cambridge-Alphametrics model (CAM) illustrates consequences of resumed global imbalances after the 2008-2009 crisis. An alternative scenario exemplifies the case in which China and India shift towards internal income redistribution and domestic demand orientated policies and suggests that this will not be sufficient to correct global imbalances or induce improved growth rates in other developing regions. Finally a more ambitious development perspective is simulated. Such a scenario requires internationally-coordinated policy efforts, with greater role for governments in the management of demand, income distribution and environmental sustainability, as well as measures to reduce instability of exchange rate and commodity markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39049.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Global economic imbalances; under-consumption and over- borrowing; income distribution; internationally-coordinated policies;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
- O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
- F1 - International Economics - - Trade
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- Nelson Barbosa-Filho & Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor & Luca Zamparelli, 2006. "Fiscal, Foreign, And Private Net Borrowing: Widely Accepted Theories Don’T Closely Fit The Facts," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 177, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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- von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
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