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Growth volatility and trade: evidence from the 1967-1975 closure of the Suez Canal

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  • Parinduri, Rasyad

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of trade on economic growth and growth volatility. Using the 1967-1975 closure of the Suez Canal as an instrument for trade, I find that trade leads to higher economic growth, and lower probability of recession or economic slowdown. There is no evidence that trade reduces growth volatility, however.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39040/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39040.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39040

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Keywords: economic growth; volatility; trade; IV method;

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  1. James Feyrer, 2011. "Distance, Trade, and Income -- The 1967 to 1975 Closing of the Suez Canal as a Natural Experiment," 2011 Meeting Papers 1438, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
  3. Stephen J Redding & Peter K Schott & Andrew B Bernard, 2007. "Multi-product Firms and Trade Liberalization," 2007 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1996. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. John Romalis, 2007. "Market Access, Openness and Growth," NBER Working Papers 13048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2004. "Trade and Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(2), pages 612-645, May.
  7. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  8. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2007. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: A Reassessment," Research Department Publications 4518, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  9. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
  10. Mona Haddad & Jamus Jerome Lim & Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2013. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 765-790, May.
  11. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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