Aging population and public pensions: theory and evidence
AbstractRapidly aging population in high-income countries has exerted additional pressure on the sustainability of public pension expenditure. We present a formal model of public pension expenditure under endogenous human capital, where the latter facilitates a substantial decrease in equilibrium fertility rate alongside the improvement in life expectancy. We demonstrate how higher life expectancy and human capital endowment facilitate the rise of net replacement rate. We provide and examine an empirical model of old-age expenditure in a panel of 33 countries in the period 1998–2008. Our results indicate that increases in total fertility rate and effective retirement age would reduce age-related expenditure substantially. While higher net replacement rate would alleviate the risk of old-age poverty, it would endanger long-term sustainability of public finance by imposing additional pressure on deficit and public debt.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38914.
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
public pensions; aging; social security; replacement rate; life expectancy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2012-05-29 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2012-05-29 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-DGE-2012-05-29 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edward C. Prescott, 2003.
"Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?,"
321, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-13.
- Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans Work so Much More than Europeans?," NBER Working Papers 10316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans?," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000413, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
- Volker Meier & Matthias Wrede, 2005.
"Pension, Fertility, and Education,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1521, CESifo Group Munich.
- Randall Filer & Marjorie Honig, 2005.
"Endogenous Pensions and Retirement Behavior,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1547, CESifo Group Munich.
- Randall K. Filer & Marjorie Honig, 2005. "Endogenous Pensions and Retirement Behavior," Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers 410, Hunter College: Department of Economics.
- Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
- Joseph Quinn & Richard Burkhauser & Kevin Cahill & Robert Weathers, 1998. "Microeconometric Analysis of the Retirement Decision: United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 203, OECD Publishing.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Gunther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "The Effect of Social Security Reform on Male Retirement in High and Middle Income Countries," PGDA Working Papers 4809, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005.
"Fertility and Social Security,"
359, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," NBER Working Papers 11146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michele Boldrin & Maria Cristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000506, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2007. "Future Social Security Entitlements and the Retirement Decision," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 234-246, May.
- Ronald D. Lee & Ryan D. Edwards, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Dutta, Jayasri & Kapur, Sandeep & Orszag, J. Michael, 2000. "A portfolio approach to the optimal funding of pensions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 201-206, November.
- Paul van den Noord & Richard Herd, 1993. "Pension Liabilities in the Seven Major Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 142, OECD Publishing.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- Canegrati, Emanuele, 2007. "The Decision to Retire: Some Microeconomic Hints," MPRA Paper 1553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John Bongaarts, 2004. "Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23.
- Takashi Yamagata & Chris Orme, 2005.
"On Testing Sample Selection Bias Under the Multicollinearity Problem,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 467-481.
- Yamagata. T., 2005. "On Testing Sample Selection Bias under the Multicollinearity Problem," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0522, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Gary Burtless & Joseph F. Quinn, 2002.
"Is Working Longer the Answer for an Aging Workforce?,"
Issues in Brief
ib2002-11, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2002.
- Gary Burtless & Joseph F. Quinn, 2002. "Is Working Longer the Answer for an Aging Workforce?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 550, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Milos Marius Cristian, 2012. "Demographic Dynamics And Sustainability Of Public Pension Expenditures Within European Union-15 Member States," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 171-174, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.