[China's output gap estimates (1985-2009) and comparison of the two estimation methods]
AbstractIn this paper, we used the production function method and the Van Norden method to estimate China's output gap (and potential output) from 1985 to 2009 year,and comparise the two methods. The results showed that: (1) the results of different methods are basically consistent with our economic situation. (2) Chinese economic stability enhanced after the emergence of sharp fluctuations, so development of domestic demand is the only way to stabilize the economy. (3) the results estimated by the Van Norden are more sensitive than PF method's . (4) From 2000, the potential output of China has increased.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38785.
Date of creation: 05 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Potential output; output gap; the production function method; Van Norden method;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
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- Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2001.
"Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy,"
Working Paper Series
0059, European Central Bank.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
- Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Michael Ehrmann and Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 8, Society for Computational Economics.
- Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, EconWPA.
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