Fiscal Consolidation Needs and Implications for Growth
AbstractPublic debt in the OECD area passed annual GDP in 2011 and is still rising. For many countries, just stabilising debt - let alone bringing it down to a more sustainable level - is a major challenge. The debt overhangs can affect growth through channels such as raising the cost of capital. The main focus of this paper however is the implications for growth both in the short term and in the long term of reducing debt levels. Consolidation needs are large and most of the reduction in debt will need to come from improvements in the primary balance. In the short term, the pace of consolidation needs to balance consolidation requirements with the effects of fiscal retrenchment on aggregate demand. The trade-off will depend on the choice of fiscal instrument and on the ability of monetary policy to accommodate consolidation. However, other things being equal, a slow consolidation will ultimately require more effort to meet a fixed debt target. In this context, consolidation should aim to use instruments that are friendly to long-term growth. There is scope to improve budgetary positions by reforming transfer systems, raising the efficiency of public services, eliminating certain tax expenditures and collecting additional revenues from less distortionary tax bases.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38745.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Fiscal consolidation; Growth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Douglas Sutherland & Robert W.R. Price & Isabelle Joumard & Chantal Nicq, 2007. "Performance Indicators for Public Spending Efficiency in Primary and Secondary Education," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 546, OECD Publishing.
- Bruno Van Pottelsberghe & Dominique Guellec, 2004.
"From R&D to productivity growth: do the institutional settings and the sources of funds of R&D matter?,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/6207, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 2004. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do the Institutional Settings and the Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 353-378, 07.
- Guellec, Dominique & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno van, 2003. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do The Institutional Setting and The Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," IIR Working Paper 03-26, Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe, 2004. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do the Institutional Settings and the Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," Working Papers CEB 04-010.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011.
"Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July.
- George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Interest rate risk and other determinants of post WWII U.S. government debt/GDP dynamics," Working Papers 01, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
- Thomas J. Sargent & George J. Hall, 2010. "Interest rate risk and other determinants of post WWII U.S. government debt/GDP dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 15702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alain de Serres & Fabrice Murtin & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing Green Growth Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 774, OECD Publishing.
- Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Simon Field & Nathalie Girouard, 2002. "Investment in Human Capital Through Post-Compulsory Education and Training: Selected Efficiency and Equity Aspects," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 333, OECD Publishing.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011.
"The Liquidation of Government Debt,"
Working Paper Series
WP11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011.
"Using inflation to erode the US public debt,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
- Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2009. "Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt," NBER Working Papers 15562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2009. "Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6xf174rs, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Isabelle Joumard & Christophe André & Chantal Nicq, 2010. "Health Care Systems: Efficiency and Institutions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 769, OECD Publishing.
- Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2006. "The drivers of public expenditure on health and long-term care: An integrated approach," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2006(2), pages 115-154.
- Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 3. Long-Run Projections and Fiscal Gap Calculations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 934, OECD Publishing.
- Pablo Antolín & Alain de Serres & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2004. "Long-Term Budgetary Implications of Tax-Favoured Retirement Plans," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 393, OECD Publishing.
- Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Ian Hurst, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 2. Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Consolidations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 933, OECD Publishing.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.