Prevendo retornos de ações atrasvés de movimentos passados: uma modificação no Modelo de Grinblatt e Moskowitz
[Predicting stock returns through past movements: a modification of Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model]
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to present the Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model (2004), and make a modification to adapt for an emerging market, in this case to apply in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), that presents some specifics characteristics and problems, common in financial models and time series. It was made a modification in the original model and applied to Brazilian Capital Markets. Some interesting results were found: the presence of downside risk and the presence of turbulence during the electoral process in 2002. This modification was significantly because it incorporated the dummy variable to electoral process and took off the benchmark variable, which presented some disturbance when applied to Brazilian database. The modification of the Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model (2004) showed better results than the original one. It suggests that the modification can incorporate some characteristics of emerging markets countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38128.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
BOVESPA; downside risk; Grinblatt and Moskowitz Model; market efficiency;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
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