Median-based seasonal adjustment in the presence of seasonal volatility
AbstractPhilippine seasonal time series data tends to have unstable seasonal behavior, called seasonal volatility. Current Philippine seasonal adjustment methods use X-11-ARIMA, which has been shown to be poor in the presence of seasonal volatility. A modification of the Census X-11 method for seasonal adjustment is devised by changing the moving average filters into median-based filtering procedures using Tukey repeated median smoothing techniques. To study the ability of the new procedure, simulation experiments and application to real Philippine time series data were conducted and compared to Census X-11-ARIMA methods. The seasonal adjustment results will be evaluated based on their revision history, smoothness and accuracy in estimating the non-seasonal component. The results of research open the idea of using robust nonlinear filtering methods as an alternative in seasonal adjustment when moving average filters tend to fail under unfavorable conditions of time series data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 37146.
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Tukey Median Smoothing; Unstable Seasonality; Seasonal Filtering; Census X-11-ARIMA; Robust Filtering;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-03-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2012-03-14 (Econometric Time Series)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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