Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law with disaggregated data: evidence from Turkey, 1968-2004
AbstractRecent developments in time series analysis have encouraged the economists to re-examine their findings about the Wagner’s Law. That is why, the aggregation in public expenditures may lead some contradictions, disaggregated analyses should perform to have more consistent results. In this paper, the cointegration and causal relationships have re-examined between public expenditure and economic growth by using disaggregated annual data over the period of 1968-2004 for Turkish economy. Obtained results show that there is no common trend between these variables in the long-run. In the short-run, however, there is a strong and bidirectional causal relationship between public investment expenditures and economic growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36894.
Date of creation: 19 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Wagner's Law; Cointegration; Causality; disaggregated data; public expenditures; economic growth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2012-03-08 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-FDG-2012-03-08 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2012-03-08 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Peter M. Jackson & Meryem Duygun Fethi & Sami Fethi, . "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A test for Northern Cyprus, 1977-1996," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics, Department of Economics, University of Leicester 99/2, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Jiranyakul, Komain, 2007. "The Relation between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth in Thailand," MPRA Paper 46070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988.
"Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
485, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, . "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bruce Morley & Nicholas Perdikis, 2000. "Trade liberalisation, government expenditure and economic growth in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 38-54.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008.
"Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces,"
China Economic Review, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Panel Data, Cointegration, Causality And Wagner'S Law: Empirical Evidence From Chinese Provinces," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series, Monash University, Department of Economics 01/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Rajaguru GULASEKARAN & Tilak ABEYSINGHE, 2002. "The Distortionary Effects Of Temporal Aggregation On Granger Causality," Departmental Working Papers, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics wp0204, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- Tobin, Damian, 2005. "Economic Liberalization, the Changing Role of the State and "Wagner's Law": China's Development Experience since 1978," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 729-743, May.
- Halicioglu Ferda, 2003. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 31-42, August.
- Granger, C.W.J. & Siklos, P.L., 1993.
"Systematic Sampling, Temporal Aggregation, Seasonal Adjustment, and Cointegration: Theory and Evidence,"
Working Papers, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics
93001, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
- Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-98, August.
- Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1998. "An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 687-700.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.