Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the Retail Trade Sector Using Survey Data from Malaysia
AbstractThe rational expectations hypothesis states that when people are expecting things to happen, using the available information, the predicted outcomes usually occur. This study utilized survey data provided by the Business Expectations Survey of Limited Companies to test whether forecasts of the Malaysian retail sector, based on gross revenue and capital expenditures, are rational. The empirical evidence illustrates that the decision-makers expectations in the retail sector are biased and too optimistic in forecasting gross revenue and capital expenditures.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36699.
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of International Business and Economics 4.11(2011): pp. 214-218
REH; Unbiasedness; Non-serial Correlation; Weak-form Efficiency;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-02-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-SEA-2012-02-20 (South East Asia)
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