Eyes on Romania: what to look when investing here?
AbstractIn this paper we identify a framework of the main macroeconomic indicators an investor must look when investing in a country, depending on his activity business sector. Using a qualitative method of research on the Romanian case in period of 2000-2010, we establish that a series of leading indicators, as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, inflation rate and industrial production, are appropriate to get a brief snapshot of the economic outlook of a country. The following period, since 2011 to 2014, confirm our results. Beside the traditional indicators, we set as significant the degree of business cycles synchronization with the European Union (EU) in order to predict the next path of the Romanian economy. We use a structural divergence index for assessing the similarity of economic structure between Romania and EU. The results of this study confirm that Romania lags behind EU, offering the possibility to decide the next step of an investor’s business strategy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36140.
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
foreign direct investment; leading indicators; business cycles synchronization;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-02-08 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2012-02-08 (Transition Economics)
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