Eyes on Romania: what to look when investing here?
AbstractIn this paper we identify a framework of the main macroeconomic indicators an investor must look when investing in a country, depending on his activity business sector. Using a qualitative method of research on the Romanian case in period of 2000-2010, we establish that a series of leading indicators, as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, inflation rate and industrial production, are appropriate to get a brief snapshot of the economic outlook of a country. The following period, since 2011 to 2014, confirm our results. Beside the traditional indicators, we set as significant the degree of business cycles synchronization with the European Union (EU) in order to predict the next path of the Romanian economy. We use a structural divergence index for assessing the similarity of economic structure between Romania and EU. The results of this study confirm that Romania lags behind EU, offering the possibility to decide the next step of an investor’s business strategy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36140.
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
foreign direct investment; leading indicators; business cycles synchronization;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-02-08 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2012-02-08 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008.
"Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04.
- Haan, Jakob de & Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2005. "Will business cycles in the Euro Area converge : a critical survey of empirical research," CCSO Working Papers 200508, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Jean Imbs, 2004.
"Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
- Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jansen, W. Jos & Stokman, Ad C.J., 2004.
"Foreign direct investment and international business cycle comovement,"
Working Paper Series
0401, European Central Bank.
- W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-10, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
- W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," Macroeconomics 0402029, EconWPA.
- Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999.
"Borders and business cycles,"
91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar, 2003. "Restructuring the ECB," CESifo Working Paper Series 1084, CESifo Group Munich.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2007.
"Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2007/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
- Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007.
"Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: An Empiricial Investigation Based on Cross-Country Comparison,"
9636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: An Empirical Investigation based on Cross-Country Comparison," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 60(1), pages 75-81.
- Laura CASI & Laura RESMINI, 2010. "Evidence on the determinants of foreign direct investment: the case of EU regions," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 1, pages 93-118, December.
- Dumitru, Ionut, 2009.
"Adoptarea euro in Romania
[Euro adoption in Romania]," MPRA Paper 18612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Are the new EU members ready for the EURO?: A comparison of costs and benefits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Miao Wang & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Outflows and Business-cycle Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 146-163, 02.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.