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Eyes on Romania: what to look when investing here?

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  • Tatomir, Cristina F.
  • Popovici, Oana

Abstract

In this paper we identify a framework of the main macroeconomic indicators an investor must look when investing in a country, depending on his activity business sector. Using a qualitative method of research on the Romanian case in period of 2000-2010, we establish that a series of leading indicators, as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, inflation rate and industrial production, are appropriate to get a brief snapshot of the economic outlook of a country. The following period, since 2011 to 2014, confirm our results. Beside the traditional indicators, we set as significant the degree of business cycles synchronization with the European Union (EU) in order to predict the next path of the Romanian economy. We use a structural divergence index for assessing the similarity of economic structure between Romania and EU. The results of this study confirm that Romania lags behind EU, offering the possibility to decide the next step of an investor’s business strategy.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36140.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36140

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Keywords: foreign direct investment; leading indicators; business cycles synchronization;

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  1. Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: An Empirical Investigation based on Cross-Country Comparison," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 60(1), pages 75-81.
  2. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  5. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
  6. Jansen, W. Jos & Stokman, Ad C.J., 2004. "Foreign direct investment and international business cycle comovement," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0401, European Central Bank.
  7. Miao Wang & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Outflows and Business-cycle Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 146-163, 02.
  8. Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Are the new EU members ready for the EURO?: A comparison of costs and benefits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-38, January.
  9. Dumitru, Ionut, 2009. "Adoptarea euro in Romania
    [Euro adoption in Romania]
    ," MPRA Paper 18612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Laura CASI & Laura RESMINI, 2010. "Evidence on the determinants of foreign direct investment: the case of EU regions," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 1, pages 93-118, December.
  11. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar, 2003. "Restructuring the ECB," CESifo Working Paper Series 1084, CESifo Group Munich.
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