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Linkages among the non-genetically modified soybean, conventional soybean, and corn futures markets in the Tokyo Grain Exchange

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  • Aruga, Kentaka

Abstract

The market linkages among the non-genetically modified (non-GM) soybean, conventional soybean, and cor futures markets at the Tokyo Grain Exchange are investigated to find out if the two soybean futures markets and the corn futures market share price information in the presence of unknown breaks. The results reveal that there are market linkages between the non-GM and conventional soybean futures prices and between the non-GM soybean and corn futures prices and that these markets do influence one another. Yet the breaks found in the soybean futures price affected these linkages and there were periods where the two soybean and corn futures markets were not cointegrated. Hence these markets are efficient when the effect from the breaks is not apparent but they become inefficient when the breaks are affecting the three markets.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36101.

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Date of creation: 18 Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36101

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Keywords: non-genetically modified soybeans; conventional soybeans; corn; cointegration test; structural change;

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  1. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
  2. G. Geoffrey Booth & Cetin Ciner, 2001. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 311-313.
  3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06.
  4. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
  5. Asche, F. & Bremnes, H. & Wessells, C.R., 1998. "Product Aggregation, Market Integration and Relationships Between Prices: an Application to World Salmon Markets," Papers 27/98, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
  6. McCluskey, Jill J. & Grimsrud, Kristine M. & Ouchi, Hiromi & Wahl, Thomas I., 2003. "Consumer Response to Genetically Modified Food Products in Japan," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), October.
  7. David E. Rapach & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regression Models of Aggregate U.S. Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 238-274.
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