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Abstract

This paper utilizes a small-scale econometric model to study the dynamics of the Irish debt-to-GDP ratio. The role of world GDP growth, domestic GDP growth, real effective exchange rate, interest rate and primary balance is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that the Irish economy will recover to its normal path by 2015. Policy interventions for higher primary balance and output growth, and the external positive scenarios for variables such as the world GDP growth, rate of interest and real effective exchange rate are desirable to help further reduce the debt path.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35295/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35295.

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Date of creation: 05 Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35295

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Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
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Related research

Keywords: Debt to GDP ratio; Irish economy; Sustainability;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
• H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
• C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
• H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2011-12-19 (All new papers)
• NEP-MAC-2011-12-19 (Macroeconomics)

References

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1. Casadio, Paolo & Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2011. "The dynamics of Italian public debt: Alternative paths for fiscal consolidation," MPRA Paper 30646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
2. Hofman, Bert & Reisen, Helmut, 1990. "Debt overhang, liquidity constraints and adjustment incentives," Kiel Working Papers 432, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
   
   • Bert Hofman & Helmut Reisen, 1990. "Debt Overhang, Liquidity Constraints and Adjustment Incentives," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 32, OECD Publishing.
3. Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 755-783, December.
   
   • Carlo Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Working Papers 298, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
   • Favero, Carlo A & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
4. Andrews, Rick L, 1994. "Forecasting Performance of Structural Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 129-33, January.

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