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Are foreign currency markets interdependent? evidence from data mining technologies

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  • Malliaris, A.G.
  • Malliaris, Mary

Abstract

This study uses two data mining methodologies: Classification and Regression Trees (C&RT) and Generalized Rule Induction (GRI) to uncover patterns among daily cash closing prices of eight currency markets. Data from 2000 through 2009 is used, with the last year held out to test the robustness of the rules found in the previous nine years. Results from the two methodologies are contrasted. A number of rules which perform well in both the training and testing years are discussed as empirical evidence of interdependence among foreign currency markets. The mechanical rules identified in this paper can usefully supplement other types of financial modeling of foreign currencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35261.

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Date of creation: 28 Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35261

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Keywords: Foreign Currency Markets;

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  1. Orlov, Alexei G., 2009. "A cospectral analysis of exchange rate comovements during Asian financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 742-758, December.
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  8. Kroencke, Tim Alexander & Schindler, Felix & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "International diversification benefits with foreign exchange investment styles," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-028, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  9. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E., 2001. "Interdependence and dynamics in currency futures markets: A multivariate analysis of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1161-1186, June.
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