The performance of amateur traders on a public internet site: a case of a stock-exchange contest
AbstractWe analyze a very thorough data base, including all of the bid/ask orders and daily portfolio values of more than 600 on-line amateur traders from February 2007 to June 2009. These traders were taking part in a stock-exchange contest proposed by the French Internet stock-exchange site Zonebourse. More than 80% of traders lose relative to the market. Their relative average annual performance varies from -38% to -60%, depending on the method used. In absolute, more than 99% of traders lose and face drastic losses: on average, portfolio values fall from an initial value of 100 to a terminal value of 7 in the 29 months covered here. When we include the rewards offered by the contest, average performance becomes -13% a year. However, only two deciles continue to beat the market. From an initial value of 100 the final value is 28 including rewards, but 95% of traders still lose in absolute. There is no clear performance persistence for traders. Are the best traders just lucky then? Focusing on contest winners, the long-term transition analysis suggests a long-term probability of staying in the best decile which is greater than chance. We thus cannot reject a “star effect” of staying in the best decile. However, the great majority of amateurs do seem to be e-pigeons. Online trading may just be costly entertainment, like casino gambling.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34304.
Date of creation: 24 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Behavioral finance; finance; online trading; amateur traders ; e-pigeons; trade losses;
Other versions of this item:
- Philippe Bernard & Michel Blanchard, 2013. "The performance of amateur traders on a public internet site: a case of a stock-exchange contest," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1729-1737.
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
- Constantinides, George M, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence: Discussion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 791-92, July.
- Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04.
- Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
- Daniel Dorn & Paul Sengmueller, 2009. "Trading as Entertainment?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 591-603, April.
- Peter O. Dietz, 1968. "Components Of A Measurement Model: Rate Of Return, Risk, And Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 267-275, 05.
- Mizrach, Bruce & Weerts, Susan, 2009.
"Experts online: An analysis of trading activity in a public Internet chat room,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 266-281, May.
- Bruce Mizrach & Susan Weerts, 2004. "Experts Online: An Analysis of Trading Activity in a Public Internet Chat Room," Departmental Working Papers 200412, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
- Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Metrick, Andrew, 2002. "How does the Internet affect trading? Evidence from investor behavior in 401(k) plans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 397-421, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.