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Pakistan: Breaking out of stagflation into sustained growth

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  • Amjad, Rashid
  • Din, Musleh-ud
  • Qayyum, Abdul

Abstract

This paper proposes that the underlying cause of the macroeconomic problems facing Pakistan today are a series of supply shocks which have constrained output growth. It is argued that while the current debate has solely focused on government expenditures and revenues, it is critical to also address the acute energy shortages which is constraining supply. The paper goes on to present four recommendations for breaking out of the present stagflation: (i) prudent macroeconomic management, (ii) reviving the role of the government in development while restoring fiscal balance, (iii) loosening monetary policy in order to spur the private sector, and (iv) improving social safety nets.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33812/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33812.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33812

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Keywords: Economic Growth; Supply Shock; Pakistan;

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References

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  1. Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh ud, 2010. "Economic and social impact of global financial crisis: implications for macroeconomic and development policies in South Asia," MPRA Paper 38150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Abdul Qayyum & Sajawal Khan & Idrees Khawaja, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 975-1001.
  4. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Trade, Financial and Growth Nexus in Pakistan," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2013), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 6, pages 1-24, December.
  5. repec:pid:wpaper:2010:2 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1980. "Stagflation, persistent unemployment and the permanence of economic shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 467-492, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Irfan ul Haque & Sahar Amjad, 2012. "Toward a Heterodox Approach: Reconciling Stabilization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(Special E), pages 1-32, September.
  2. Rashid Amjad, 2012. "Stagflation, the Labor Market Impact, and the Poverty Puzzle in Pakistan: A Preliminary Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(Special E), pages 51-71, September.

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