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Pakistan: Breaking out of stagflation into sustained growth

Author

Listed:
  • Amjad, Rashid
  • Din, Musleh-ud
  • Qayyum, Abdul

Abstract

This paper proposes that the underlying cause of the macroeconomic problems facing Pakistan today are a series of supply shocks which have constrained output growth. It is argued that while the current debate has solely focused on government expenditures and revenues, it is critical to also address the acute energy shortages which is constraining supply. The paper goes on to present four recommendations for breaking out of the present stagflation: (i) prudent macroeconomic management, (ii) reviving the role of the government in development while restoring fiscal balance, (iii) loosening monetary policy in order to spur the private sector, and (iv) improving social safety nets.

Suggested Citation

  • Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh-ud & Qayyum, Abdul, 2011. "Pakistan: Breaking out of stagflation into sustained growth," MPRA Paper 33812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33812
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rashid Amjad & Musleh ud Din, 2010. "Economic and Social Impact of Global Financial Crisis: Implications for Macroeconomic and Development Policies in South Asia," PIDE Monograph Series 2010:1, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. repec:pid:wpaper:2010:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Abdul Qayyum & Sajawal Khan & Idrees Khawaja, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 975-1001.
    4. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Trade, Financial and Growth Nexus in Pakistan," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 6, pages 1-24, December.
    5. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1979. "Supply vs. Demand Approaches to the Problem of Stagflation," NBER Working Papers 0382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Umaima Arif & Eatzaz Ahmed, 2010. "Pension System Reforms for Pakistan: Current Situation and Future Prospects," PIDE Monograph Series 2010:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    8. Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1980. "Stagflation, persistent unemployment and the permanence of economic shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 467-492, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    2. Nazia Nazeer & Rajah Rasiah, 2016. "Explaining Pakistan’s Premature Deindustrialization," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(Special E), pages 351-368, September.
    3. Inayat U. Mangla & Muslehud Din, 2015. "The Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment on Pakistan’s Manufacturing Sector," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 241-260, September.
    4. Kashif Munir, 2020. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Money and Credit in Pakistan," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
    5. Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh ud, 2014. "Pakistan Economy: Caught in a Maelstrom," MPRA Paper 61668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rashid Amjad, 2012. "Stagflation, the Labor Market Impact, and the Poverty Puzzle in Pakistan: A Preliminary Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(Special E), pages 51-71, September.
    7. Irfan ul Haque & Sahar Amjad, 2012. "Toward a Heterodox Approach: Reconciling Stabilization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(Special E), pages 1-32, September.
    8. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2012. "Modelling Trade, Investment, Growth and Liberalisation: Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 187-208.
    9. Muhammad Azam & Nasir Iqbal & Muhammad Tayyab, 2014. "Zakat and Economic Development: Micro and Macro Level Evidence from Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 3(2), pages 85-95, June.
    10. Sayeed, Asad. & Abbasi, Zubair Faisal., 2015. "The role of central banks in supporting economic growth and creation of productive employment : the case of Pakistan," ILO Working Papers 994874753402676, International Labour Organization.
    11. Abdullah, Muhammad & Gul, Zarro & Waseem, Faiza & Islam, Tanweer, 2021. "The State of Pakistan’s Economy and the Ineffectiveness of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 112678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:ilo:ilowps:487475 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Supply Shock; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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