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The reciprocal relationship between systemic risk and real economic activity

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  • Garita, Gus

Abstract

The contribution of this paper to the literature is three-fold: (1) it empirically uncovers the directionality and persistence of systemic risk surrounding "the great recession"; (2) it quantifies the reaction of the macro-economy to financial (banking) system shocks; and (3) it unearths feedback effects from the macro-economy to the (in)stability of a banking system. These contributions are attained by looking at the extremal dependence structure among banks, by presenting a multivariate framework for identifying and modeling their joint-tail distributions, and by constructing an aggregate system-wide distress index, a risk-stability index, which quantifies the systemic risk of a bank.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33135.

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Date of creation: 02 Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33135

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Keywords: Persistence; distress; contagion; panel VAR;

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  1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C.G. de Vries, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-071/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. Amil Dasgupta, 2004. "Financial Contagion Through Capital Connections: A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1049-1084, December.
  7. De Vries, C.G., 2005. "The simple economics of bank fragility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 803-825, April.
  8. Roger D. Lagunoff & Stacey L. Schreft, 1998. "A model of financial fragility," Research Working Paper 98-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. De Vries, 2005. "Banking System Stability: A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Working Papers 11698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
  11. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Chen Zhou, 2010. "Are Banks Too Big to Fail? Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 205-250, December.
  14. Franklin Allen & Ana Babus & Elena Carletti, 2009. "Financial Crises: Theory and Evidence," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 97-116, November.
  15. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
  16. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Gianluigi Ferrucci & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Liquidity risk and contagion," Bank of England working papers 264, Bank of England.
  17. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
  18. Gus Garita & Chen Zhou, 2009. "Can Open Capital Markets Help Avoid Currency Crises?," DNB Working Papers 205, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  19. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  20. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
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