IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/3280.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for breaks in cointegrated panels

Author

Listed:
  • Di Iorio, Francesca
  • Fachin, Stefano

Abstract

Stability tests for cointegrating coefficients are known to have very low power with small to medium sample sizes. In this paper we propose to solve this problem by extending the tests to dependent cointegrated panels through the stationary bootstrap. Simulation evidence shows that the proposed panel tests improve considerably on asymptotic tests applied to individual series. As an empirical illustration we examined investment and saving for a panel of 14 European countries over the 1960-2002 period. While the individual stability tests, contrary to expectations and graphical evidence, in almost all cases do not reject the null of stability, the bootstrap panel tests lead to the more plausible conclusion that the long-run relationship between these two variables is likely to have undergone a break.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2006. "Testing for breaks in cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 3280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3280/1/MPRA_paper_3280.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, February.
    2. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    3. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
    4. Allan Gregory & James M. Nason, 1991. "Testing For Structural Breaks," Working Paper 827, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Jamie Emerson & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Testing for Structural Change of a Time Trend Regression in Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 15, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    6. Grigoriev, A. & Sviridenko, M. & Uetz, M.J., 2005. "Machine scheduling with resource dependent processing times," Research Memorandum 050, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    9. Luciano Gutierrez, 2005. "Tests for cointegration in panels with regime shifts," Econometrics 0505007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    13. Banerjee, Anindya & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 591, European Central Bank.
    14. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in groupings of OECD members: A panel approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 76-87.
    2. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho & Park, Donghyun, 2016. "Governance, Vulnerability to Climate Change, and Green Growth: International Evidence," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 500, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in dependent cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 12053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2007. "Testing for Breaks in Cointegrated Panels - with an Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-23.
    5. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2012. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in panel equations with cross-section linkages," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-18.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2007. "Testing for Breaks in Cointegrated Panels - with an Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-23.
    2. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2007. "Cointegration testing in dependent panels with breaks," MPRA Paper 3139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
    4. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration study of the long-run relationship between Savings and Investments in the OECD economies, 1970-2007," MPRA Paper 25873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2009. "A residual-based bootstrap test for panel cointegration," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3222-3232.
    6. Mohamed El Hédi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(5), pages 945-959.
    7. Yongfu Huang, 2011. "Private investment and financial development in a globalized world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 43-56, August.
    8. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union," Working Papers hal-00322086, HAL.
    9. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/45, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Nizar Harrathi & Ahmed Almohaimeed, 2022. "Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: New Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 469-482.
    11. Jesus Clemente & Carmen Marcuello & Antonio Montañes, 2012. "Government Social Spending and GDP: has there been a change in social policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2895-2905, August.
    12. In Choi, 2013. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    13. Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2008. "A Simple Test for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 665-704, October.
    14. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Adina I. Tarcolea, 2014. "Iv-Based Cointegration Testing In Dependent Panels With Time-Varying Variance," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 393-406, August.
    15. Luciano Gutierrez, 2005. "Tests for cointegration in panels with regime shifts," Econometrics 0505007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2010. "The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 182-223, April.
    17. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity For Developing And Developed Countries. What Can We Learn From Non‐Stationary Panel Data Models?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 752-773, September.
    18. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.
    19. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Hsu, Chia-Sheng & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2016. "Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 420-431.
    20. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel cointegration; stationary bootstrap; parameter stability tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.