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Testing for breaks in cointegrated panels

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  • Di Iorio, Francesca
  • Fachin, Stefano

Abstract

Stability tests for cointegrating coefficients are known to have very low power with small to medium sample sizes. In this paper we propose to solve this problem by extending the tests to dependent cointegrated panels through the stationary bootstrap. Simulation evidence shows that the proposed panel tests improve considerably on asymptotic tests applied to individual series. As an empirical illustration we examined investment and saving for a panel of 14 European countries over the 1960-2002 period. While the individual stability tests, contrary to expectations and graphical evidence, in almost all cases do not reject the null of stability, the bootstrap panel tests lead to the more plausible conclusion that the long-run relationship between these two variables is likely to have undergone a break.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3280.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3280

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Keywords: Panel cointegration; stationary bootstrap; parameter stability tests;

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References

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  1. Gengenbach,Christian & Palm,Franz C. & Urbain,Jean-Pierre, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Common Factors," Research Memorandum 050, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  2. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2005:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  3. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  4. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Luciano Gutierrez, 2005. "Tests for cointegration in panels with regime shifts," Econometrics 0505007, EconWPA.
  7. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
  8. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2011. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Discussion Papers 11-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  11. Allan W. Gregory & James M. Nason, 1991. "Testing for Structural Breaks," Working Papers 827, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Jamie Emerson & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Testing for Structural Change of a Time Trend Regression in Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 15, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
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Cited by:
  1. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2012. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in panel equations with cross-section linkages," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2007. "Testing for Breaks in Cointegrated Panels - with an Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 1(14), pages 1-23.
  3. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in dependent cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 12053, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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