Causal misspecifications in econometric models
AbstractWe bridge together the graph-theoretic and the econometric approach for defining causality in statistical models to consider model misspecification problems. By presenting a solution to disagreements between the existing frameworks, we build a causal framework that allows us to express causal implications of econometric model specifications. This allows us to reveal possible inconsistencies in models used for policy analysis. In particular, we show how a common practice of doing policy analysis with vector error-correction models fails. As an example, we apply these concepts to discover fundamental flaws in a resent strand of literature estimating the carbon Kuznetz curve, which postulates that carbon dioxide emissions initially increase with economic growth but that the relationship is eventually reversed. Due to a causal misspecification, the compatibility between climate and development policy goals is overstated.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 31397.
Date of creation: 27 May 2011
Date of revision:
Causality; Policy evaluations; Energy consumption; Carbon dioxide emissions; Economic growth; Environmental Kuznets curve.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-06-18 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ENV-2011-06-18 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1274-1281, February.
- Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009.
"Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
- Guido Imbens & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 2008. "Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Imbens, Guido & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Scholarly Articles 3043416, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Imbens, Guido W. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 3640, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Guido M. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2008. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 14251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jalil, Abdul & Feridun, Mete, 2011. "The impact of growth, energy and financial development on the environment in China: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 284-291, March.
- Jalil, Abdul & Mahmud, Syed F., 2009. "Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5167-5172, December.
- Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7850-7860, December.
- Pearl, Judea, 2003. "Comments On Neuberg'S Review Of Causality," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 686-689, August.
- A. Simon, Herbert & Iwasaki, Yumi, 1988. "Causal ordering, comparative statics, and near decomposability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 149-173.
- Richmond, Amy K. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2006. "Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 176-189, February.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Iwata, Hiroki & Okada, Keisuke & Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2009.
"Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in France: The Role of Nuclear Energy,"
18997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Iwata, Hiroki & Okada, Keisuke & Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2010. "Empirical study on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in France: The role of nuclear energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4057-4063, August.
- Matzkin, Rosa L., 2007. "Nonparametric identification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 73 Elsevier.
- Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "The growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 889-898, February.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2009. "Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1667-1675, April.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 1992. "A biophysical analysis of the energy/real GDP ratio: implications for substitution and technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-56, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.