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Valuation of Latin-American stock prices with alternative versions of the Ohlson model: An investigation of cointegration relationships with time-series and panel-data

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  • Duran-Vazquez, Rocio
  • Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo
  • Ruiz-Porras, Antonio

Abstract

We develop an investigation regarding the determinants of the stock prices in six Latin American emerging markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). We test the traditional Ohlson model and an international version of it. The international model includes the Dow Jones index as an additional explanatory variable. We use time-series and panel-data cointegration methodologies to assess the long-run relationships among the variables postulated by both models. We use quarterly data for the period 2000:01-2010:03. The results suggest that panel-data techniques may be better than time-series ones for the assessments. They support the use of the Ohlson models and, specially, the international one. The variables are significant and have the postulated signs. These results hold when the firms are considered as a whole and for the commercial and construction firms. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the Latin American asset prices are complementary to the US ones in the long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 31354.

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Date of creation: 08 May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31354

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Keywords: Ohlson Model; Latin America; Cointegration;

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  1. César Medeiros Cupertino & Paulo Roberto Barbosa Lustosa, 2004. "Ohlson Model Testability:Empirical Tests Findings," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 1(2), pages 136-150, June.
  2. Collins, Daniel W. & Maydew, Edward L. & Weiss, Ira S., 1997. "Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-67, December.
  3. Pär Österholm & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2007. "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology When Variables Are Near-Integrated," IMF Working Papers 07/141, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Michael McCrae & Henrik Nilsson, 2001. "The explanatory and predictive power of different specifications of the Ohlson (1995) valuation models," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 315-341.
  5. Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
  6. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Rocío Durán Vázquez & Leticia Armenta Fraire, 2012. "Conditional Correlation Between Oil and Stock Market Returns: The Case of Mexico," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, October.
  2. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2013. "Un modelo GARCH con asimetria condicional autorregresiva para modelar series de tiempo: Una aplicacion para los rendimientos del Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la BMV
    [A GARCH model with autor
    ," MPRA Paper 46328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2011. "Valuación de acciones mexicanas mediante los modelos de Ohlson y Ohlson-Beta para firmas con ciclos de corto y largo plazos: Un análisis de cointegración
    [Valuation of Mexican stocks with the Ol
    ," MPRA Paper 33054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Durán-Vázquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2012. "Un modelo GARCH con asimetría condicional autorregresiva para modelar series de tiempo: Una aplicación para el Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones
    [A GARCH model with autorregresive conditional asym
    ," MPRA Paper 42548, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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