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Social Policy Targeting and Binary Information Transfer between Surveys

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  • Gottlieb, Daniel
  • Kushnir, Leonid

Abstract

This paper deals with the optimal transfer of binary information (BIT) on group membership between different statistical surveys of an identical population, a need arising frequently in socio-economic surveys. The limited number of questions asked in any one survey may necessitate information transfer between surveys. We design a method for a a BIT between a source-survey originally including the information and a target survey in which it is needed. An efficient BIT depends on (1) efficient estimation of the statistical model explaining group-membership as estimated by the ROC-curve, (2) the choice of a cutoff value for translating the forecasted logistic probability back into a binary variable and (3) a statistically testable quality control of the transfer. We suggest an optimal cutoff point that minimizes the sum of squared errors instead of the well-known Hosmer-Lemeshow method. Our application illustrates how survey data can be enhanced, when repeated interviews are expensive or difficult to implement. We enhance the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) by transferring a binary variable of households' religious group membership from the Social Survey to the HES. This helps identify extremely poor groups for poverty calculations and improved targeting of anti-poverty policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3127.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3127

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Keywords: ROC curves; Binary Variables; Logistic Regression; Group Identification; Optimal Cutoff Value; Poverty Targeting; Poverty Mapping; Small Area Estimation;

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  1. Eli Berman, 1998. "Sect, Subsidy, and Sacrifice: An Economist's View of Ultra-Orthodox Jews," NBER Working Papers 6715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Glewwe, Paul & van der Gaag, Jacques, 1990. "Identifying the poor in developing countries: Do different definitions matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 803-814, June.
  3. Bigman, David & Srinivasan, P. V., 2002. "Geographical targeting of poverty alleviation programs: methodology and applications in rural India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 237-255, June.
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Cited by:
  1. García-Fernández, Rosa María & Gottlieb, Daniel & Palacios-González, Frederico, 2013. "Polarization, growth and social policy in the case of Israel, 1997-2008," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(15), pages 1-40.

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