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Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment

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  • Chiwaula, Levison
  • Waibel, Hermann

Abstract

Using data from 260 households from the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, the paper shows that vulnerability to poverty estimates are biased if the data used is seasonal. The seasonal bias in the consumption expenditure is less pronounced than in its variance. The paper further shows that the relative sizes of the seasonal bias in expected consumption expenditure and its variance determines the final magnitude of the bias. However, the bias in the expected consumption expenditure is sufficiently corrected by including seasonal dummy variables. We therefore encourage researchers to consider seasonality when they are modelling consumption expenditure with the aim of estimating vulnerability.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30716.

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Date of creation: 29 Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30716

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Keywords: Seasonal bias; vulnerability to poverty; natural experiment; Nigeria;

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  1. Ligon, Ethan & Laura Schechter, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002, Royal Economic Society 128, Royal Economic Society.
  2. Naohito Abe, 2008. "Volatility in Panel Data of Household Expenditure," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University d07-237, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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