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A Vector Auto-Regressıve (VAR) Model for the Turkish Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Bayraci, Selcuk
  • Ari, Yakup
  • Yildirim, Yavuz

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of the Turkish financial markets for the period of June 15 2006 – June 15 2010 and forecasts ISE100 index, TRY/USD exchange rate, and short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the VAR model is compared with the results from the univariate models. Moreover, the dynamics of the financial markets are analyzed through Granger causality and impulse response analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayraci, Selcuk & Ari, Yakup & Yildirim, Yavuz, 2011. "A Vector Auto-Regressıve (VAR) Model for the Turkish Financial Markets," MPRA Paper 30475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30475
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30475/1/MPRA_paper_30475.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Mamcarz, 2019. "Gold Market and Selected Stock Markets–Granger Causality Analysis," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Waldemar Tarczyński & Kesra Nermend (ed.), Effective Investments on Capital Markets, chapter 0, pages 405-422, Springer.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multivariate financial time series; vector auto-regressive (VAR) model; impulse response analysis; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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