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Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004

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  • Mohun, Simon
  • Veneziani, Roberto

Abstract

This paper provides empirical support for an interpretation of the Goodwin growth cycle as isolating the main forces underlying distributive conflict, but in a fragile symbiotic mechanism because of endogenous forces that modify the balance of class power. Goodwin cycles are the shorter run cycles that appear around a long run motion that is the product of structural change. The paper describes long run trends in the Goodwin variables in the US corporate economy from 1948 to 2004, which exhibit both a sharp break at the beginning of the 80s, and no long run cycles. Short run detrended Goodwin cycles are identified, which broadly coincide in period and timing with the NBER dating of (the troughs of) business cycles. The paper then divides the employed nonfarm private industry labour force into supervisory and nonsupervisory workers, and focuses on the latter. The same two conclusions apply.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30444/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30444.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30444

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Related research

Keywords: Goodwin growth cycle; wage share; US economy;

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References

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  1. Skott,Peter, 2008. "Conflict and Effective Demand in Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066310, October.
  2. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 139-173, 06.
  3. Veneziani, Roberto & Mohun, Simon, 2006. "Structural stability and Goodwin's growth cycle," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 437-451, December.
  4. Simon Mohun, 2006. "Distributive shares in the US economy, 1964--2001," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 347-370, May.
  5. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  6. Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 349-76, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlo V. FIORIO & Simon MOHUN & Roberto VENEZIANI, 2013. "Social Democracy and Distributive Conflict in the UK, 1950-2010," Departmental Working Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, revised 16 May 2013.
  2. Ben Zipperer & Peter Skott, 2010. "Cyclical patterns of employment, utilization and profitability," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2010-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  3. Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2013. "Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2088-2103.
  4. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "Uncertainty and Contradiction: An Essay on the Business Cycle," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_770, Levy Economics Institute.

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