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Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004

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  • Mohun, Simon
  • Veneziani, Roberto

Abstract

This paper provides empirical support for an interpretation of the Goodwin growth cycle as isolating the main forces underlying distributive conflict, but in a fragile symbiotic mechanism because of endogenous forces that modify the balance of class power. Goodwin cycles are the shorter run cycles that appear around a long run motion that is the product of structural change. The paper describes long run trends in the Goodwin variables in the US corporate economy from 1948 to 2004, which exhibit both a sharp break at the beginning of the 80s, and no long run cycles. Short run detrended Goodwin cycles are identified, which broadly coincide in period and timing with the NBER dating of (the troughs of) business cycles. The paper then divides the employed nonfarm private industry labour force into supervisory and nonsupervisory workers, and focuses on the latter. The same two conclusions apply.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohun, Simon & Veneziani, Roberto, 2006. "Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004," MPRA Paper 30444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30444
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30444/1/MPRA_paper_30444.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 139-173, June.
    2. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    3. Simon Mohun, 2006. "Distributive shares in the US economy, 1964--2001," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(3), pages 347-370, May.
    4. Veneziani, Roberto & Mohun, Simon, 2006. "Structural stability and Goodwin's growth cycle," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 437-451, December.
    5. Gérard Duménil & Dominique Lévy, 1993. "The Economics Of The Profit Rate," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 153.
    6. Skott,Peter, 2008. "Conflict and Effective Demand in Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066310.
    7. Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 24(3), pages 349-376, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "Uncertainty and Contradiction: An Essay on the Business Cycle," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_770, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Cyclical growth in a Goodwin–Kalecki–Marx model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 108(2), pages 145-171, March.
    3. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "Segmented Labor Markets and the Distributive Cycle: A Roadmap towards Inclusive Growth," MPRA Paper 62832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. E. Stockhammere & J. Michell, 2017. "Pseudo-Goodwin cycles in a Minsky model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125.
    5. Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2013. "Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2088-2103.
    6. Tapia, Jose, 2015. "Profits encourage investment, investment dampens profits, government spending does not prime the pump — A DAG investigation of business-cycle dynamics," MPRA Paper 64698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carlo V. Fiorio & Simon Mohun & Roberto Veneziani, 2013. "Social Democracy and Distributive Conflict in the UK, 1950-2010," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-06, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    8. Ben Zipperer & Peter Skott, 2011. "Cyclical patterns of employment, utilization, and profitability," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 25-58.
    9. Armon Rezai, 2013. "Cycles of demand and distribution and monetary policy in the U.S. economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 231-250.
    10. Rudiger von Arnim & Jose Barrales, 2015. "Demand-driven Goodwin cycles with Kaldorian and Kaleckian features," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Goodwin growth cycle; wage share; US economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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